Coronavirus - A boots on the ground report.
Updated: May 4, 2020
Update: Up to date details on european border crossings and restrictions here:
I live 40 minutes from the Italian border. Things there are bad around here.
There have been 1000-2000 new infections detected in each of the last three 24hr periods. 60 million people are now in quarantine. Nobody in the entire country can go outside without a permit.
People are sitting in their houses with dead relatives. Funerals banned. Airports closed. I'm a UK national and there are Brits there who can't get home.
Doctors in Italy are predicting the health service has got 2 weeks maximum before it collapses. Some say it's already started:
A total of 12 inmates have now died in prison riots across Italy triggered by emergency restrictions imposed amid the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak. The riots began on Sunday over rule changes that including the suspension of family visits in jails. In Modena's Santa Ana prison, fires were started and workers were taken hostage. Over the past three days, a total of nine prisoners have died and 50 have escaped. On Tuesday, another three detainees were found dead in their cell in Rieti prison after taking drugs looted from the prison infirmary. The rule changes have sparked unrest in a total of 20 prisons across Italy.
My country of residence is Croatia. Only 19 cases to date, but the schools have been closed, restaurants on short time and public events banned. Airports in surrounding countries are closing down. You need a doctors certificate to cross the Austrian border if you're coming through Italy and Slovenia has closed theirs completely on the Italian side.
I used to think this was a storm in a teacup, but this is proving not to be the case. There are diseases with a higher death rates for sure, but the thing with Corona is the R0 or infection rate. It's 2.7 which is very high and there is no vaccine. Growth is exponential.
I honestly think there are more cases in the US than people know. There was some balls up involving a failed attempt to make test kits in house and now there is a real shortage of kits.
I have a friend in Indiana suffering and they don't have the resources to test him even at this stage.
IMHO, the only way to stop this disease it to close schools, offices and lock down travel at the soonest opportunity. I think the American administration are dragging their feet, and covering up their mistakes. Europe is largely on top of testing and are reacting accordingly which is why it seems bad there.
Read this article!
It's long and detailed but the stats speak for themselves.
Do your own homework!
If you really want to check out the effects of this virus yourself, copy this sheet and play with the R0 (Infection rate) figure. This is the crux of the matter, and if you feel the need to contest the media hype, you need to arm yourself with the facts. This model is rudimentary, but a great illustration of how viruses can get out of control if screening and quarantine measures are not put into place in a timely fashion.